About
I’m a data scientist and political scientist working at the intersection of politics, policy, media, and business. I help organisations make better decisions by turning complex data into clear insight—especially when the stakes are high and uncertainty matters.
My work combines rigorous research design and statistical modelling with deep experience in political behaviour, messaging, elections and electoral processes. Clients value not just my technical expertise, but judgement about what to measure and model, how to interpret results, and how to act on those results.
What I do
Strategy under uncertainty. Using research and data to identify targets of opportunity, vulnerabilities, and effective framing in political and commercial settings, stress-testing assumptions.
Measurement. Attitudes and behaviour using surveys, experiments, administrative records, social media.
Inference and projection. Combining disparate data sources for forecasts, projections, including model-assisted small-area estimation (MRP and its successors).
Decision support. Modeling and forecasting that clarify and guide actions, rather than decorating slide decks.
Independent assessments. Expert witness reports and testimony.
Capability building. Training and mentoring teams in data science, machine learning, and Bayesian statistics.
Background
I was born and raised in Australia and trained in the US, earning my PhD at the University of Rochester (1995) and Princeton University, before professorial appointments at the University of Chicago and Stanford. I returned to Australia in 2015, becoming CEO and Professor of Political Science at the US Studies Centre at the University of Sydney (2016-2022) where I am now an Honorary Professor.
I am an elected fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the Academy of the Social Sciences in Australia, and the Society for Political Methodology.
Education and academic appointments
- Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science, University of Rochester (1995)
- Visiting PhD Student, Princeton University, 1991-1994.
- Assistant Professor, University of Chicago 1994-1996.
- Research Fellow, Australian National University, 1996-97.
- Professor, Stanford University, 1997-2016, Department of Political Science and, by courtesy, Department of Statistics.
- Chief Executive Officer and Professor of Political Science, United States Studies Centre, University of Sydney, 2016-2022.
- Honorary Professor, University of Sydney, 2022-present.
My complete