auspol

auspol
Estimating mass sentiment from noisy, biased signals: recent Australian elections and the Voice referendum
I deploy a class of hidden Markov models to recover the trajectory of latent public opinion from a series of noisy and possibly biased …
Aug 25, 2023 2:00 PM — 3:00 PM Monash University Business School
Simon Jackman
Slides
Estimating mass sentiment from noisy, biased signals: recent Australian elections and the Voice referendum
Owning the agenda: using machine learning to observe the dynamics of issue salience over an election campaign.
We analyse a large corpus of 325,000 social media posts from parties, candidates, interest groups and media organisations generated …
Dec 13, 2022 2:00 PM — 3:50 PM Institute for Humanities & Social Sciences, Australian Catholic University
Simon Jackman, Andrea Carson
Slides @andrea_carson
Owning the agenda: using machine learning to observe the dynamics of issue salience over an election campaign.
The 2022 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study
No slides yet. Contact me if you would like to attend in person, as this event is being held in a “after security” area of Parliament House.
Dec 5, 2022 9:30 AM — 11:00 AM Room TBA, Parliament House
Sarah Cameron, Ian McAllister, Simon Jackman, Jill Sheppard
The 2022 Australian Federal Election: Results from the Australian Election Study
Betting markets and the 2022 Australian Federal election: pre-election report
Election day summary of Sportsbet betting markets for “party to form next government” and all 151 House of Representatives seats.
May 21, 2022 0 min read elections, politics, auspol
Betting markets and the 2022 Australian Federal election: pre-election report
State of the United States 2022: Shifting political and social foundations of US power

Survey research undertaken for the United States Studies Centre in December 2021 reveals a United States deeply divided, increasingly isolationist and pessimistic, undergoing substantial democratic backsliding and at risk of more. Specifically:

  • The United States has fallen out of the top 30 liberal democracies, a trend that continues as many Republican-controlled states enact laws making voter registration and turnout burdensome and election administration subject to partisan interference.
  • Under Trump, Republican Party supporters have become disproportionately authoritarian and populist.
  • Related to the currency, salience and concentration of authoritarianism and populism among Republican voters are historically high levels of isolationism, a profound lack of optimism about the future of the United States, and deep partisan disagreements as to what problems the US faces — at home and abroad — and how to address them.
Mar 21, 2022 1 min read uspol, auspol, alliance, surveys, authoritarianism
State of the United States 2022: Shifting political and social foundations of US power