polls

I deploy a class of hidden Markov models to recover the trajectory of latent public opinion from a series of noisy and possibly biased …

Predictive modeling of national, state and electorate level results for the Voice referendum. Polling place level analysis shows that polling places with high levels of Indigeneity generally had strong majorities for Yes.

I average public polls estimating voting intentions for the Voice referendum. My analysis produces estimates of daily levels and trend in the proportion supporting “Yes” and the distinctiveness of each pollster’s estimates. Updated regularly as polls are published.

Betting markets are often said to provide more accurate forecasts of elections than polls, despite evidence to the contrary. We contrast the trajectory of Sportsbet’s implied probability that either party would win the 2022 Australian federal election and the performance of Sportsbet’s markets in all 151 House of Representatives seats.

At the end of the 2022 Australian federal election campaign, a simple poll average estimated that the Coalition would win 46.5% of the two-party preferred vote. Correcting for the average level of bias in the five previous elections (2007 to 2019), this estimate was shifted to 47.9% Coalition TPP. This corrected estimate corresponds exactly to the Coalition’s actual result in the 2022 election.